Egypt is being devoured by the beast
I have been mulling over the situation playing out in Egypt these past couple of years. Obviously a tangled net of plaguing issues for decades upon decades led to the eruption last year and recently. The mass demonstrations I believe represent the beginning of a bloody fate that awaits all Egyptians.
Many of us look at the behavior of Egypts military relative to the mass protests. They were restrained and didn’t gun them down. Many of us hope that our own military complex will do the same when unrest emerges in our country.
Restraint by the Egyptian military could change if radical Islam is allowed to rule the coop. It is the beast of Islam that will drive the behavior of the military. I am of the optimistic view that Egypts military would align with a liberal form of Islam. The beast will fight like the devil he is to prevent this from occurring.
The Egyptian military has ruled Egypt but behind the scenes. I look at it this way as long as whatever puppet government was in control and that government ruled Egypt keeping all its parts oiled and working in a way that the military approved then the military was pleased.
The Morisi government was a failure, in my mind, to juggle the issues and keep his Muslim Brotherhood radical allegiance to Islam in the closet.
The ideological difference among Egypt’s populace is great. Hatred runs high be it between Coptic Christians and strict Islamist to that of Muslims wanting a free society and those who want a strict adherence to Islamic Sharia law.
Egypt also has other pressing issues that bring instability. Egypt hit their peak in oil production in the 90’s. The country has little aired land to plant crops to feed the nation. They are a nation of importers.
The population of the country is growing in leaps and bounds. The concentration of its peoples reside in three population centers. Unemployment is rampant and due to its population growth unemployment is highest among the youth. In these population centers there are on average 3,200 peoples per sq. mile. Its like an Islamic rats maze that is unmanageable and no one can find their way out.
The governments of Egypt it has been reported subsidize oil products and food staples keeping their costs more affordable to the people. The coffers of the Central Bank is unable to sustain the demand. The Egyptian ruling class are known for rampant corruption.
Egypt has defaulted on payments to those they import from. Other countries have attempted to keep them afloat. However that option for Egypt is closing fast. Their credit card is maxed out.
The tensions between Egypt and the IMF is strained. The IMF has conditions that Egypt must meet and with the current situation will push off the demands imposed by the IMF.
WSJ reported “Other international donors have vowed another $9.7 billion for the country once the IMF program is in place. Roughly $1.55 billion in bilateral aid from Washington could also be held up: under U.S. law, the administration can’t loan money to countries where the military is involved in an unconstitutional change in government.”
The demands by the IMF center around subsidies reduction, VAT and fiscal deficit reduction. The VAT is not one that trade unions support they call for progressive tax.
I conclude that Egypt is a powder keg and the match is inching closer to igniting the fuse. Blame will be directed between factions. The military may choose to act in very unacceptable ways.
One thing I am sure of is that the U.S. should not send more weapons to Egypt. Nor should we involve America in a public way in its affairs. Just as Obama’s backing of the Muslim Brotherhood backfired more directed involvement by Obama will have severe consequences for the United States.
In Islamic countries you are damned if you do or damned if you don’t. I would like the U.S. to try the “don’t” and see what happens. Since there are international bodies that have emerged in hopes of running a global government let them dip their feet in the flames.
If Islam refuses to reform its sorry ugly self the Middle East is toast.